“Not-so-extreme projections”

Carmel Pine Cone— March 29, 2024

Consultants to Carmel’s city government have produced new draconian estimates of the future sea level rise. These estimates are supposedly based on state guidance that the sea level will rise 4 feet by 2100. But, as The Pine Cone article points out, in 2018, state guidance predicted 7 feet of rise by 2100.

Moreover, the official summary of the 2024 state report says that the most likely rise by 2100 is now between 1.6 ft and 3.1 ft, not 4 feet. https://opc.ca.gov/2024/01/ draft-slr-guidance-2024.

Where did the consultants even get the 4 feet number? Who knows? This isn’t the first time estimates from state or federal reports have been massaged to produce alarming numbers at the local level. The good news is that, over the last few years, scientists have been backing off extreme projections and arriving at lower numbers.

City planners, rather than relying on expensive consultants, should read the periodic reports coming from the state government. They’re easy to understand and they spell out the uncertainty. The Council of Ocean Protection held a webinar focused on the central coast on Feb. 14, which is still available as a recording. Did anyone from Carmel’s government attend?

Thomas Lee, Monterey